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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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